PROPOSITIONAL SHORTCOMINGS IN MODELING OF THE FUTURE IN THE CONTEXT OF Ch.S. PEIRCE’S PRAGMATISM: BASED ON POSTCONFLICT SCENARIOS

Abstract

Ch.S. Peirce in 1902–1905 publications, in particular, “What is Pragmatism?” (in The Monist), while explaining the essentials of pragmatism, defines belief as a state of a self-satisfied habit, in contrast with doubt as the privation of habit, the state that tends to be a condition to erratic activity. Moreover, Ch.S. Peirce points out that the possibilities and limitations of probability description and assessment can be realized in future actions only, as they denote the sphere of practice in which it is possible to develop self-control through self-preparation, employing belief and doubt, for subsequent reflection excluding the possibility of self-reproach. The pragmatistic tools for assessing and modeling future practical consequences have been integrated into modern theoretical approaches predicting crisis changes in social reality. Therefore, this paper is intended to evoke a discussion in the philosophical community on the idea of  applying the pragmatistic tools of belief, and doubt, and assigning meaning to the scenarios characterized by uncertain chronological boundaries and deferred consequences, for instance, the scenarios of postconflict future suggested during the phases of the Russo-Ukrainian war. Peirce’s belief-doubt dichotomy is transformed into a dynamic modal scale of Belief – Prediction –Expectation – Supposition – Doubt (B(PES)D) and applied to evaluate the propositional adaptability of scenarios to the unpredictable duration of future challenges, as well as the individual and collective resilience resource necessary to obtain the expected practical results in the war-affected communities. Thus, the paper is focused on the pre-2022 social and economic scenarios for the of the occupied territories reintegration, with attention paid to the changes triggered by the full-scale Russian invasion, as well as propositional adaptation of scenarios to the changed definition of realities due to large-scale migration processes and security risks of genocide and loss of subjectivity, actualized during this phase of the war. The study has employed secondary analysis of survey and statistical data from open sources for the period of armed aggression, as well as the analysis of scientific publications, official documents, and reports, to define the propositional limitations of long-term modeling embedded in practical discourses, as well as the influence of the concept of justice on the assessment of the future model in crisis conditions, within the framework of the refined belief-doubt scale (B(PES)D).